Trade, interest rates and stock volatility drive metals trading sentiment
Gold futures eased in Friday’s shortened session, pulling back from Wednesday’s, pre-Thanksgiving two-week high. Still, the loss was slim enough to leave the precious metal just in the green for the week.
Market focus remained fixated on Federal Reserve interest-rate plans over coming months, the dollar’s response to said rate moves, and what looming China-U.S. trade discussions could indicate for the economy’s fortunes. Stock volatility, with major averages pushed into negative for the year earlier this week, is underpinning the appetite for haven gold as well.
Gold for December delivery GCZ8, -0.37% on Comex fell $4.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,223.20 an ounce. Gold settled at 12:30 Eastern time, about an hour early for Black Friday. It rose less than 0.1% for the week.
“The gold story looks very intriguing in the face of looming trade war risk [and] a possible u-turn on Fed policy, which would result in a significantly weaker U.S. dollar. All of which suggests gold prices will continue to find a bid,” said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trading with Oanda.
The Fed is widely expected to enact its fourth rate increase of 2018 in December, but investors have concerns over how many increases the central bank can implement next year without sparking a domestic recession, amid emerging signs of global economic weakness. The Fed has penciled in three more hikes for 2019.
Part of the economic uncertainty germinates with trade tensions. China rejected fresh U.S. accusations of perpetuating “unfair” trade practices and urged Washington on Thursday to stop making provocations, as the two sides will join up next week at the Group of 20 summit.
Gold fell as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.46% a gauge of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, rose 0.4% Friday afternoon. It was up nearly 0.5% for the week and 0.9% for the month so far. Gold often moves inversely to the dollar. A firmer dollar can make gold less attractive to users of other currencies.
Gold investors are “awaiting next week’s Mr. Powell [who speaks Wednesday and releases meeting minutes from the central bank’s November meeting on Thursday] and a December rate hike from a data-dependent Fed,” said George Gero, managing director and within the senior consulting group at RBC Wealth Management.
He said trade news could be a near-term market driver but added that longer-term inflation, deficits and worries about politics “could bring a brisk rally to gold.”
Meanwhile, after one of the weaker starts to a Thanksgiving week in recent years, the S&P 500 index, SPX, -0.66% Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.73% and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.48% were all set to register weekly declines of more than 3%, according to FactSet data. See Market Snapshot.
In other metals trade, December silver SIZ8, -1.67% fell 26 cents, or 1.7%, to $14.243 an ounce, with prices for the white metal down about 0.9% for the week. December palladium PAZ8, -2.76% fell nearly 4.4% for the week, while January platinum PLF9, -0.88% fell about 0.3% compared to last Friday and December copper HGZ8, -1.50% gave up 1.4%.
In exchange-traded fund trading, the SPDR Gold Shares GLD, -0.08% was down 0.1% Friday afternoon, while the iShares Silver Trust SLV, -1.32% fell 1.4%. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, -2.27% fell 2.3%.
