Archives for September 15, 2019

Weekly Market Review – September 14, 2019

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Stock Markets

Stocks advanced to near record highs this week thanks to improving economic data, supportive global central-bank policies, and new optimism around the trade issue that has been plaguing the markets. In a positive move, China announced that it would exclude certain U.S. products from tariffs. The U.S. immediately provided a “good dog” response by delaying the increase for some of its tariffs that are scheduled to take effect in October. These small mercies by both sides appeared to lift optimism that it is possible to reach an interim trade agreement. Market moves last week included a major rise in Treasury yields along with the outperformance of typical cyclical sectors such as industrials, financials, and energy versus defensives stocks such as health care, staples and utilities. There was also a shift in the preference for stocks with depressed valuations over stocks that traditionally trade at higher price-to-earnings ratios.

U.S. Economy

The stock market’s rebound from the August pullback is no surprise. It remains consistent with analysts’ view that equities will likely see more volatility at this stage in the cycle, set against a fundamental backdrop that still supports the extension of this bull market. Things cooled slightly on the geopolitical front in September so far, but the core contributors fueling the bouts of volatility have not been eradicated. It’s likely that the Fed will cut rates this week, but viewers expect markets will respond to any signals that additional policy moves aren’t in sync with current expectations for more rate cuts. Also, despite signs of progress, most don’t expect the trade situation with China to reach an end soon, keeping markets volatile. The important Brexit issue is likely to get a lot of attention on the horizon.

Metals and Mining

Gold regained further momentum Friday as the US dollar slumped, based on concerns surrounding a global growth slowdown. Although it was up, gold was capped by equity markets that were gaining thanks to a potential respite in the US-China trade tensions. Analysts feel that that continued fears surrounding a global economic downturn and negative-yielding government debt, married to a dovish monetary policy outlook by global central banks will support gold long-term. Experts in the gold market continue to predict increasingly high levels for the metal’s price. Silver was also up slightly on the back of a lower dollar and ongoing global economic tensions. Since it tends to follow the path of gold, many investors believe that it too is still in a great position to continue strong gains as it has been since early August. In other other precious metals, platinum was up on Friday, continuing to trade above the US$900 per ounce level. Platinum prices have surged over the last month thanks to greater safe haven demand paired with supply concerns.

Analysts see the price of the metal rising slightly, but they feel it will trail behind its sister metal palladium. On that side, palladium lost on Friday after experiencing an all-time high during the previous session that peaked at US$1,621.55. Analysts feel palladium prices may dip, but it will continue to be supported throughout the year. Next week, market participants will be keeping a close eye on $1,500 gold pricing as the first line of defense gold prices have to hold in the near term, according to analysts.

Energy and Oil

The series of back-and-forth gestures between Washington and Beijing has boosted market sentiment. Chinese firms bought 10 shipments of U.S. soybeans on Thursday in another effort to build confidence inspiring the October trade talks. Politico reports that the Trump team is trying to find an ease the trade war that the President started. There is a growing effort to head off trade escalation. However, a breakthrough in negotiations is a serious challenge. Oil remains tight now with a surplus in 2020. The IEA said this week that the market will see inventory drawdowns of 0.8 mb/d in the second half of 2019, but that a surplus would return in 2020. The request to OPEC is set to decline by 1.4 mb/d next year. This will present a serious situation for the cartel to resolve. Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this week. Henry Hub spot prices rose from $2.42 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last week to $2.59/MMBtu this week.  At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the October 2019 contract increased 11¢, from $2.445/MMBtu last week to $2.552/MMBtu this week. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2019 through September 2020 futures contracts climbed 9¢/MMBtu to end at $2.561/MMBtu.

World Markets

European stock markets were up this week as the European Central Bank announced new monetary stimulus aimed at supporting the eurozone economy. At the same time, fears of a no-deal Brexit were waning. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose about 1.3%, the German DAX gained 2.4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.2%. The British pound rose to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since July. That’s due to Parliament passing a law that forces the UK government to seek a Brexit extension from the European Union as well as avoids a no-deal Brexit on October 31. The German Ifo Institute cut its forecast for German growth this year to 0.5% from 0.6% and lowered its estimate for next year to 1.2% from 1.7%.

Chinese stocks advanced in what was a holiday-shortened week. Both China and the U.S. took important steps toward reducing their trade war. Expectations also increased that Beijing would be putting more stimulus measures in place to boost the economy. For the week ended Thursday, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.1%, its highest level in 10 weeks. The large-cap CSI 300 Index added 0.6%. Stock markets on the mainland were closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

The Week Ahead

This week’s focus will be primarily on the Federal Reserve as it issues its latest rate decision this Wednesday. There are other important economic figures emerging during the week as well including housing starts, industrial production numbers, existing home sales, along with Friday’s figures on the leading economic index.

Key Topics to Watch

  • Empire state index
  • Industrial production
  • Capacity utilization
  • Home builders’ index 
  • Housing starts
  • Fed announcement
  • Jerome Powell press conference                                            
  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Philly Fed survey
  • Current account deficit Q2
  • Existing home sales
  • Leading economic indicators

Markets Index Wrap Up

Deluge of Pixel 4 photos confirms a few of the phone’s key specs

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Expect a brighter camera and souped-up processing power.

If you thought the torrent of detailed Pixel 4 leaks was over, you have another thing coming. Vietnamese phone shop D Store Mobile has sent nearly two dozen photos of a pre-release Pixel 4 XL to The Verge that appear to confirm some of its previously rumored specs. Notably, the main rear camera will snap shots with a brighter f/1.73 aperture (versus f/1.8 on the Pixel 3). The telephoto camera’s specs aren’t available, but you can safely presume there will be improvements to low-light photos and some close-ups.

Curiously, the camera app will apparently default to capturing 16:9 photos to fill the screen, rather than 4:3 photos to make the most of the sensor.

Other specs in the photos show expected but welcome performance upgrades. The speedy 90Hz OLED screen remains the highlight, but you’ll also get a Snapdragon 855 processor with 6GB of RAM, a 3,700mAh battery (on the XL) and 128GB of UFS storage on at least one model. It won’t beat ASUS’ ROG Phone II in terms of raw power, then. Google instead seems focused on its touch-free gestures and its usual AI wizardry to reel you in.

Microsoft’s Surface Laptop 3 may come in a 15-inch model

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That’s on top of a possible AMD-based version.

To date, you’ve had to buy a Surface Book 2 if you’ve wanted a Microsoft-made laptop larger than 13.5-inches. Soon, though, you might not have to spend quite so much to get a large surface. The historically accurate WinFuture claims that Microsoft will unveil a 15-inch flavor of the next Surface Laptop (presumably the Surface Laptop 3) at its October 2nd event. Most details aren’t available at this stage, but Microsoft reportedly intends to preserve the taller-than-usual 3:2 screen aspect ratio like it did for the larger Surface Book.

There may be more shakeups at the media gathering. The Verge expects an AMD-powered Surface Laptop 3 (the first AMD-based Surface of any kind) at the event, although it’s not certain if the new chip option would be available in the 15-inch system, the 13.5-inch variant or both.

The October 2nd presentation could have a wide variety of devices on tap, including an updated Surface Pro, a Qualcomm Snapdragon-based system and a teaser for a dual-screen Surface. It wouldn’t represent a radical departure for Microsoft (outside of the teaser), but it would diversify a lineup that’s still quite small.

Apple pulls the plug on the iPod classic

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This gadget did one thing really well.

It’s been just over five years since Apple killed off the iPod Classic (henceforth known as the iPod, because it is the One True iPod). Its death on September 9th, 2014 was no big surprise: Sales had been declining for years as the iPhone surpassed it in sales and feature set. Indeed, the notion of loading files from a computer onto a spinning hard drive to listen to music was totally anachronistic by 2014. Apple Music hadn’t arrived yet, but Spotify was quickly becoming the most important way to listen to music. Since we were all carrying smartphones, having another device for music just didn’t make sense anymore.

In retrospect, though, I sometimes miss the iPod. Over the last five years, smartphones have taken on a predictable form. Screens are bigger, networks are (marginally) faster, cameras are better, but all in all, we know what we’re getting with a handset. However, our relationship with smartphones is far more fraught than it was in 2014. We’re overloaded with notifications telling us about the horrible state of the world, networks like Twitter and Facebook are minefields of abuse, subscriptions and microtransactions suck more money out of wallets — and yet we can’t put our phones down.

Against the backdrop of smartphone addiction, the iPod suddenly seems appealing. Its tiny, 2.5-inch screen contained a UI meant to help you skim through thousands of songs quickly and easily; there was very little to distract you from your music. A device that felt so futuristic when it came out now feels positively retro. It’s full of buttons! You have to copy files from your computer to use it! There’s no internet connection!

Of course, those aren’t bugs but features to a small but substantial group of music lovers. You can find a whole variety of iPods for sale on eBay, not surprising considering how popular they were, but it’s still an impressive secondary market. There’s also a healthy mod community that’ll help interested hackers put a larger, more modern SSD drive and new battery into that old iPod case. If you’re the kind of person with a carefully-curated MP3 library built up over the last two decades, or someone who still buys CDs and rips them to a computer, you’re probably the kind of person who pines for an iPod.

Koichi Kamoshida

Even though Apple killed off the original iPod five years ago, the brand still has a little value for the company. Apple still sells an iPod touch, though it’s more of an iOS gateway drug at this point than anything else. But after years of the smartphone obviating various single-purpose gadgets — cameras, music players, portable gaming devices and more — it’s not hard to imagine a world where people concerned with quality rather than convenience opt for dedicated devices again. If you’re the kind of person who carries a Sony RX-100, Nintendo Switch or Kindle, you get it.

While it doesn’t seem likely that Apple will bring back the iPod any time soon, that won’t keep me from daydreaming about what a modern update to the line would look like. This is Apple we’re talking about, so it would probably only work with Apple Music or an existing MP3 library, but that’s OK. As long as there was a way to sync downloaded songs from Apple Music to this imaginary iPod, it would be sufficiently modern for my tastes. Throw in a slightly larger, higher-resolution screen, a fast SSD, long battery life and a headphone jack and we’re off to the races. As long as there’s a click wheel, I’d at least give it a shot. The iPod 2020 probably wouldn’t find a large audience — but as we approach the iPod’s 20th anniversary, I bet Apple would be surprised to find just how many fans are still out there.

SIM-based attack has been used to spy on people for two years

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Simjacker theoretically affects most phones.

In a few cases,your SIM card may pose more of a security risk than your phone’s software. AdaptiveMobile Security researchers say they’ve discovered a new vulnerability, nicknamed Simjacker, that’s being used to surveil people’s devices by an unnamed surveillance company. The technique sends SMS messages containing instructions for an old S@T Browser app supported on some carriers’ SIM cards. Where S@T was originally intended to launch browsers, play sounds or otherwise trigger common actions on phones, Simjacker uses it to obtain location info and IMEI numbers that are later sent to an “accomplice device” (again using SMS) that records the data.

Crucially, the approach is silent. While it does use SMS, you won’t get notifications. An intruder can obtain frequent updates without giving away their activity. The exploit is also device-agnostic, and has been used against iPhones, numerous brands of Android phones and some SIM-equipped Internet of Things devices.

And it’s not just a theoretical exercise. The surveillance company has reportedly been using Simjacker in 30-plus countries (mainly in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and eastern Europe) for a minimum of two years. While most targets were ‘only’ checked a few times per day over long stretches of time, a handful of people were targeted hundreds of times over the space of a week — 250 in the case of the most prominent target. It’s not believed to be a mass surveillance campaign, but AdaptiveMobile also hasn’t said whether this was being used for tracking criminals or more nefarious purposes, like spying on political dissidents. The company is mounting a “highly sophisticated” operation, AdaptiveMobile said.

It should be possible for networks to thwart these attacks. Simjacker is sending code rather than everyday text, so it should be feasible to block the code. It may be difficult to coordinate that response, though, when the affected countries have a total population of a billion. And while you’re not likely to be targeted by this particular organization, there’s nothing precluding a similarly capable attacker from launching a wider campaign. It may be a long while before you can assume your SIM isn’t a potential weakness.

Stocks to Watch: Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)

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Investors may be studying some short-term indicators on shares of Tronox Holdings plc (TROX). The current 7-day average directional indicator is Buy. This signal may be used to determine the market trend. The 7-day directional strength is Strong. This trend strength indicator measures the signal based on historical performance where minimum would represent the weakest, and maximum would indicate the strongest. The 7-day average directional direction is currently Strengthening . This signal indicates whether the Buy or Sell signal is getting stronger or weakening, or whether the Hold is heading towards a Buy or Sell. Taking a quick look at another popular indicator, we can see that the 10-day moving average Hilo channel is currently Buy. This indicator calculates the moving average based on highs/lows rather than the closing price.

Investing in the stock market can be highly challenging. Most investors have the same intentions of trying to maximize profits from investment capital. Realizing that there are many unknowns in the market, investors will need to make sure that they are constantly staying on top of the current economic scene. As most investors know, the market can see big shifts on a daily basis. Being able to deal with the constant ups and downs can be a huge asset to the individual investor’s psyche. Because stock market investing can get highly emotional at times, investors often have to find a way to keep a clear head and make the best possible decisions even when the market terrain gets rocky. Many successful investors have created a plan that they have been able to adhere to through the thick and thin.

The stock currently has a standard deviation of 0.11. Standard deviation is defined as a measure of the dispersion from the mean in regards to a data set. When dealing with financial instruments, the standard deviation is applied to the annual rate of return to help measure the volatility of a particular investment. Watching the standard deviation may assist investors with trying to figure out if a stock is primed for a major move. Tronox Holdings plc’s current pivot is 9.79. The pivot point is commonly used as a trend indicator. The pivot is the average of the close, low, and high of the prior trading period.

Tracking current trading session activity on shares of Tronox Holdings plc (TROX), we can see that the stock price recently hit 9.65. At the open, shares were trading at 9.71. Since the start of the session, the stock has topped out with a high of 10.1 and bottomed with a low of 9.61. After noting current price levels, we can see that the change from the open is presently 0.04. Of course, there is no simple answer to solving the question of how to best tackle the stock market, especially when dealing with an uncertain investing climate. There are many different schools of thought when it comes to trading equities. Investors may have to first gauge their appetite for risk in order to form a solid platform on which to build a legitimate strategy.

At this time of year, investors may be reviewing their portfolios to see what changes can be made moving forward. As we head into the second half of the calendar year, all eyes will be on the next few earnings periods. Many investors may be looking to find some under the radar stocks that have a chance to take off. Successful traders are typically extremely adept at combining technical and fundamental analysis in order to find these stocks. Some investors may be better at sifting through the market noise than others. Active investors may be interested in tracking historical stock price information on shares of Tronox Holdings plc (TROX). Over the past full year, the high point for the stock was seen at 15.5. During that same period, the low price touched 6.46. Investors will be watching to see if the stock can gain some momentum heading into the second half.

Active investors are constantly faced with tough decisions when managing their own stock portfolios. Deciding when to sell a certain stock may be just as vital as choosing which stocks to buy in the first place. There are bound to be extremes on both sides when analyzing buy and sell decisions. Maybe a well researched stock hasn’t seen the gains that were expected at the outset. When emotions take over, the investor may not be able to part with the stock. They may hold on to the equity with the hopes that someday it will bounce back. Of course this may happen eventually, but the situation could also worsen and the stock may keep losing. The same decisions sometimes have to be made when dealing with a winning stock. After a big run, the investor may have to decide whether to take the profits or hold off to see if the stock will continue to push upwards. These are no easy decisions for the individual investor. Being able to make the proper portfolio moves may take some time to master, but it may end up being highly important for continued, long-term success.