The Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21
The country’s premiers get a chance to set aside their differences this week when they gather in Saskatoon for the annual meeting of the Council of the Federation.
It’s a fancy title befitting a premier event. But this year’s two-day get-together comes with the added attraction (distraction?) of being the last time the premiers meet before the federal election that’s now mere months away.
And that suggests fed-bashing might well be more attractive to the premiers than fighting each other — more appealing than B.C. and Alberta hashing out their Trans-Mountain arguments in public again, or Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister voicing his concerns about Quebec’s decision to ban public officials from wearing symbols of their religious faith while on the job.
“My hope is that we will focus not on the parties but the need for the federal government — whoever is controlling that, whether it’s the Liberals, Conservatives or New Democrats — to look at how the different orders of government can act together,” British Columbia Premier John Horgan said Friday in an interview airing on this weekend’s edition of The House.
“Those discussions are going to be critically important and I’m hopeful that we don’t get into a lot of partisan hectoring. We will get into, ‘The feds should do this and the feds should do that.’ But I don’t think we should put a partisan label on the feds at this point.”
Horgan is the lone New Democrat in a group of premiers that includes a whole lot of newcomers this year — all of them ‘conservatives.’
Most of those premiers, if not all of them, oppose the federal price on carbon and have gone to court (so far unsuccessfully) to block it. And most, if not all, support the expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, which puts them directly at odds with Horgan.
Still, those same political divisions were evident when the western premiers met in Edmonton two weeks ago, and the communiqué that came out of that gathering included a commitment to tackle climate change — even if the people around the table had very different views on how to do it.
Horgan said he’s not bothered by all the new faces. “I believe that we’ll be focusing on looking at new ideas with a new perspective, rather than continuing to beat the same old drum.”
The formal agenda for Saskatoon isn’t out yet, but it’s expected to include the usual topics. More money for health care. Fewer barriers to trade among provinces. More economic growth. More co-operation in recognizing the training and certification of skilled workers interprovincially.
When it comes to health care, Horgan said premiers of all political stripes want the next federal government to halt the steady decline in the federal share of spending.
“And so, although we come from different teams and different perspectives in terms of blue and orange teams, we come with the same unified position when it comes to appropriate level of funding from the federal government to meet the services that people are demanding in our communities.”
A unified position. Common ground. Demands for action. All things you can typically expect of any gathering of premiers.
But can the premiers resist the usual round of fed-bashing this time around, when the political stripe of the next government might just be different than the one today? Don’t count on it — no matter what they say heading in.
Poll Tracker Takeaway
The Poll Tracker estimates that with current support levels, the Conservatives would win 157 seats and the Liberals would win 142 seats.
That’s a small gap between the two parties — a gap that has gotten smaller recently as the Liberals appear to be bouncing back in Ontario.
But it means both parties would be below the 170-seat threshold needed for a majority government.
It’s hard to see a dancing partner for the Conservatives at this stage, but the Liberals also would have a tough time finding enough allies in the House of Commons to continue governing.
The New Democrats would be too weak; they stand at just 19 seats in the Poll Tracker, not enough to get the Liberals to 170. Even the four Green MPs projected still would put a possible red-orange-green rainbow coalition five seats short.
The Bloc Québécois has no more support than it had in 2015 — but it could win more seats this time, thanks to how the vote could split in Quebec. That would leave it holding the balance of power.
That didn’t work out so well for the Liberals the last time the minority math required the support of the Bloc back in 2008.
Of course, the Oct. 21 results are unlikely to mirror where the Poll Tracker stands today. It wouldn’t take much to shift the dynamic in the House significantly. Five seats are easy to find.
And a shift of a few points here or there could mean the Liberals or Conservatives wouldn’t need any dancing partners in the first place.
Still, it’s something that politicians — and voters — might be thinking about come October.
