Some analysts see signs of panic in sentiment readings, flow data
Investors looking for signs of capitulation in the stock market took heart in a closely watched weekly survey that showed bearish sentiment at its highest in 5 1/2 years.
The American Association of Individual Investors late Thursday said bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 18.4 percentage points to 48.9% in the seven-day period ended Wednesday. The chart below from Bespoke Investment Group tracks the data.
That’s the highest since a reading of 54.5% on April 11, 2013, and marks the 10th straight week bearish sentiment was above the survey’s historical average of 30.5%. The rise was also the largest weekly jump since April 2013 and the 24th largest since the survey began, AAII said.
Alongside separate fund flow data showing investors dumped stocks and bonds for cash over the past week, some analysts argued that investors may finally be showing signs of panic:
AAII said bullish sentiment, or expectations that prices will rise over the next six months, fell 17 percentage points to 20.9%, its lowest since May 25, 2016, leaving it below its historical average of 38.5% for the 12th time in 14 weeks. Neutral sentiment fell by 1.3 percentage points to 30.2%, below its average of 31% for the sixth time in seven weeks.
At current levels, pessimism is unusually high and optimism is unusually low, AAII said, noting that both have historically been followed by higher-than-median 6- and 12-month returns for the S&P SPX, -1.91% . That’s particularly the case for low optimism readings, they said.
Investor mood was unlikely to improve amid Friday’s market action, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.02% down more than 400 points while the S&P 500 SPX, -1.91% fell 1.4%. Both indexes are down more than 5% in the month to date and in negative territory year to date.
