Nvidia's 70% Guide, Salesforce's Relief Rally, HP's Charges

Nvidia guided to 70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth against analyst expectations of 44% after posting revenue up 105.9% year over year to $96.22 billion, while Salesforce was set to open around 13% higher and HP Inc. around 9% lower following their own quarterly reports.

Three sets of results landed within hours of each other, and the market's verdict on them was anything but uniform. NVIDIA (NVDA) put up a quarter that beat expectations and guided far above what Wall Street had modelled. Salesforce (CRM) broke the software sell-off that had been driven by fears artificial intelligence would eat into its market. HP Inc. (HPQ) grew revenue by double digits and was set to be punished for it anyway.

Taken together, the three reactions sketch out how capital is currently being allocated inside the AI trade: heavily toward the companies selling the compute and the companies proving they can monetise it, and grudgingly toward the ones whose margins are exposed to hardware pricing and one-off charges.

A 70% growth guide against a 44% consensus

Nvidia's reported quarter was the easy part. Revenue grew 105.9% year over year to $96.22 billion, with Data Center revenue up 117% year over year to $89.0 billion — meaning the data centre line alone is now the overwhelming bulk of the business. Chief executive Jensen Huang said demand is accelerating.

The number that moved the stock, though, was the forward one. Nvidia is forecasting revenue growth of 70% for fiscal 2028. Analysts had been modelling 44%. That is not a small beat on a guide; it is a wholesale repricing of the duration of the AI buildout. A 44% consensus implies deceleration from a very high base — the normal analytical instinct when a company doubles revenue. A 70% guide implies management sees the order book extending well past the point most models had it flattening.

Shares dipped initially before gaining around 4.7% in after-hours trading, as reported by Baystreet. The initial dip is worth noting: with expectations this elevated, the first reflex on any print is to sell the known and read the guide second. NVDA last traded at 209.66, down 1.59% on the day from a previous close of 213.05, with a session range of 209.23 to 213.60, as of 20:00 GMT on 26 August 2026 — that is, before the after-hours move.

Salesforce ends the AI-disruption discount

The bear case on enterprise software through this cycle has been simple and uncomfortable: if AI agents can do the work, seat-based software licences get squeezed. That thesis had been compressing subscription-software multiples regardless of what individual companies reported.

Salesforce's quarter argued against it. Revenue rose 10.8% year over year to $11.35 billion. More importantly for a subscription business, current remaining performance obligation — cRPO, the contracted revenue a company expects to recognise over the next twelve months, and the cleanest available read on near-term demand — topped $33.5 billion, up 14% year over year. cRPO growing faster than reported revenue is the signal that matters here: it says bookings are running ahead of the recognised top line, not behind it.

Management guided to full-year revenue of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. The stock was set to open up around 13%. CRM last traded at 205.62, essentially flat at -0.03% against a previous close of 205.69, having ranged between 198.95 and 206.44 during the session — a wide day that hints at how contested the name had become going into the print.

Why HP grew revenue and still got sold

HP's headline numbers were not the problem. Revenue of $15.68 billion was up 12.6% year over year, and non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.83. Yet the stock was pointed toward a roughly 9% decline at the open.

The issue was composition. HP took restructuring and other charges, litigation (benefits) charges, and net acquisition and divestiture charges — a stack of adjustments that makes the adjusted figure harder to trust as a run-rate. Investors also objected to HP including tariff-related refunds in its non-GAAP EPS. Refunds tied to trade policy are, by nature, non-recurring and outside management's control; treating them as part of the underlying earnings picture invites exactly the scepticism HP received.

This is the recurring tension in PC and print hardware. Revenue can be grown through price and mix, but the quality of the earnings underneath it is what determines the multiple. HPQ last closed at 30.52, up 3.39% on the day from 29.52, with a range of 29.19 to 30.83 — a firm session ahead of the report that made the expected reversal sharper.

The bifurcation is now explicit

The broader tape gave almost no direction on the day. The S&P 500 tracker (SPY) closed at $766.08, up 0.02%; the Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) at $711.37, up 0.09%; the Dow tracker (DIA) at $534.23, down 0.19%. Index-level calm alongside single-stock moves of 9% and 13% in opposite directions is the definition of a stock-picker's market rather than a beta market.

What the three reports have in common is that each was judged on the same question: does this business capture AI spending or absorb its costs? Nvidia sells the compute and guided to growth nobody had modelled. Salesforce showed contracted future revenue accelerating past reported revenue, which is the strongest available rebuttal to the disruption thesis. HP grew a top line but leaned on adjustments and a tariff refund to get to its adjusted earnings figure.

What to watch from here

For Nvidia, the follow-through question is whether the fiscal 2028 guide survives scrutiny — a guide that far above consensus will draw hard questions about supply, customer concentration and how much of the demand is contracted versus indicated. Analyst revisions in the days after the print will show whether the sell side takes the number at face value or splits the difference with its own 44%.

For Salesforce, the test is durability. A single quarter of 14% cRPO growth reverses a narrative; two or three would retire it. Watch whether cRPO growth continues to lead reported revenue growth, and whether the $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion full-year range gets raised rather than merely reaffirmed.

For HP, the path back is cleaner disclosure. If tariff refunds and charges are stripped out and the underlying business still shows the benefit of the 12.6% revenue gain, the discount closes. If the adjusted number keeps needing help, the market will keep applying one.

Key facts

• NVDA last price: 209.66, -1.59% on the day, as of 26 Aug 2026 20:00 GMT close
• Nvidia quarterly revenue: $96.22 billion, up 105.9% Y/Y; Data Center $89.0 billion, up 117%
• Nvidia FY2028 guide: 70% revenue growth vs 44% analyst expectation
• CRM / HPQ expected opens: Salesforce up ~13%; HP Inc. down ~9%

Frequently asked questions

How much did Nvidia's revenue grow in the reported quarter?

Nvidia reported revenue of $96.22 billion, an increase of 105.9% year over year. Data Center revenue, the largest component, rose 117% year over year to $89.0 billion. Chief executive Jensen Huang said demand is accelerating. The results beat expectations, and the shares gained roughly 4.7% in after-hours trading after an initial dip.

Why is Nvidia's fiscal 2028 guidance significant?

Nvidia is forecasting revenue growth of 70% for fiscal 2028, while analysts had modelled 44%. That gap matters because a 44% consensus assumes the AI buildout decelerates from an already high base, whereas a 70% guide implies management sees demand extending well past the point most Wall Street models had it flattening out.

What is cRPO and why does Salesforce's figure matter?

cRPO stands for current remaining performance obligation: contracted revenue a company expects to recognise over the next twelve months. Salesforce's cRPO topped $33.5 billion, up 14% year over year, faster than its 10.8% reported revenue growth. Bookings running ahead of recognised revenue is the strongest available evidence that AI is not yet displacing its business.

Why did HP shares fall despite double-digit revenue growth?

HP grew revenue 12.6% year over year to $15.68 billion and posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.83, but the stock was set to open down around 9%. Investors objected to the composition: restructuring and other charges, litigation charges, and net acquisition and divestiture charges, plus HP's inclusion of non-recurring tariff-related refunds in its adjusted earnings per share.

What was Salesforce's full-year revenue guidance?

Salesforce guided to full-year revenue of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. That came alongside quarterly revenue of $11.35 billion, up 10.8% year over year, and cRPO above $33.5 billion. The combination was enough to end the software sell-off driven by fears that artificial intelligence would erode the company's market share.

How did the broader market close on the same day?

As of the 26 August 2026 close at 20:00 GMT, the S&P 500 tracker SPY was at $766.08, up 0.02%, the Nasdaq 100 tracker QQQ at $711.37, up 0.09%, and the Dow tracker DIA at $534.23, down 0.19%. Index-level calm alongside large single-stock swings points to a stock-picking market.

Sources

• Alert on Nvidia's 70% Growth, HP, and Salesforce — Baystreet

Photo: Mikhail Nilov · Pexels Licence — source