Tungsten's 622% Run Meets a 2027 Ban Nobody Can Supply
Tungsten is up 622% since the start of 2025 and a January 2027 rule cuts U.S. defense contractors off from Chinese metal. The named stocks moved in every direction on Thursday.
Tungsten prices have risen 622% since the start of 2025, and a January 1, 2027 rule bars U.S. defense contractors from using tungsten that has passed through China — with named developers including Almonty Industries closing at 17.69 on Nasdaq, up 9.33%, on Aug. 20, 2026.
The metal that makes armor-piercing rounds work has quietly outrun every fashionable battery input on the board. Tungsten prices have climbed 622% since the start of 2025, according to Visual Capitalist data. Cobalt, over the same stretch, is up 134%. Lithium is up 108%. Copper, the metal that gets the electrification headlines, is up 44%. Even tantalum's 196% gain looks modest beside it.
The reason is not demand from electric vehicles or data centers. It is a regulatory cliff in Washington, and a supply base that sits almost entirely on the wrong side of it.
What changes on January 1, 2027
From that date, U.S. defense contractors will be barred from using tungsten that has passed through China at any point in the supply chain. Not tungsten mined in China — tungsten that touched China anywhere between the ground and the finished component. That includes concentrate shipped for conversion, ammonium paratungstate produced in Chinese chemical plants, and powder pressed into carbide abroad using Chinese feedstock.
Tungsten's problem for a procurement officer is that there is no easy substitute. Its density and melting point are why it ends up in kinetic penetrators, missile components, tank armor and fighter jet parts. Aluminum-for-steel style swaps do not exist here. If a program needs tungsten, it needs tungsten.
So every major U.S. defense contractor has roughly the same shopping list and the same deadline. The catch, as the promotional piece notes, is that a compliant Western supply chain does not yet exist at the scale required. Mines take years to permit and build. Conversion capacity — turning concentrate into the intermediate chemicals and powders the defense industry actually buys — is a separate bottleneck that a new mine does not solve on its own.
The companies named alongside Blue Moon Metals (TSXV: MOON) (NASDAQ: BMM) were Almonty Industries (NASDAQ: ALM) (TSX: AII), American Tungsten (TSXV: TUNG) (OTCQX: TUNGF), Fox Tungsten (TSXV: FOXT) and Guardian Metal Resources (NYSE: GMTL) (OTCQB: GMTLF). Most are developers and explorers rather than producers, which is the entire point of the trade and also its main risk: a price signal this violent rewards ounces in the ground only if those ounces eventually become pounds in a warehouse.
How the named names actually traded
Thursday's closing prices, as of the last trade at 20:00 GMT on August 20, 2026, show a group moving on its own news rather than in lockstep. Almonty's Nasdaq line closed at 17.69, up 9.33% from the prior close of 16.18, after ranging between 15.75 and 17.76. Its Toronto listing finished at 25.56, up 2.77%, at the top of a 24.51–25.56 range. Note that the two lines are quoted in different currencies, so the percentage moves are the comparable figures, not the headline prices.
Thursday's closing prices, as of the last trade at 20:00 GMT on August 20, 2026, show a group moving on its own news rather than in lockstep.
American Tungsten's OTCQX quote closed at 1.25, up 5.04% from 1.19. Guardian Metal Resources went the other way on its NYSE listing, closing at 12.11, down 2.18%, while its OTCQB line edged up 0.42% to 2.38. Blue Moon Metals was the weakest of the set, closing at 4.96 on Nasdaq, down 4.43% from 5.19, after touching 4.86.
That divergence matters. If the market were pricing a uniform policy tailwind, these would move together. They did not, which suggests investors are still discriminating between assets, jurisdictions and stages of development rather than buying a theme wholesale.
The broader tape was soft. The S&P 500 tracker closed at $762.60, down 0.84%, the Nasdaq 100 fund at $710.93, down 0.72%, and the Dow tracker at $527.51, down 1.27%. Almonty's near-double-digit gain came against that backdrop, not with it.
The questions that decide whether this works
Three things determine whether the 2027 rule turns into revenue for anyone on this list.
- Timing. The deadline is fixed; mine construction schedules are not. Any company promising first concentrate close to the cutoff should be judged on permits already granted, not on a corporate timeline.
- Midstream capacity. Concentrate is not what a prime contractor buys. Who converts it, where, and under whose ownership is the question that separates a supplier from a mining story.
- Enforcement and waivers. Rules with impossible compliance dates have a history of being softened. A waiver regime, or a delayed phase-in, would take pressure off prices and off the equities that have front-run them.
A 622% move already embeds a great deal of anticipation. The risk in a thesis like this is not that the facts are false — the price data and the statute are checkable — but that the hardest part of the story, converting a policy deadline into a shipped, qualified, defense-grade product, is the part that gets the least space. That is the part to interrogate before the calendar turns.
Key facts
- Tungsten price move since start of 2025: +622% (Visual Capitalist)
- ALM (Nasdaq) last close: 17.69, +9.33%, as of Aug 20, 2026, 20:00 GMT
- BMM (Nasdaq) last close: 4.96, -4.43%, as of Aug 20, 2026, 20:00 GMT
- Compliance deadline: Jan 1, 2027 — no China-touched tungsten for U.S. defense contractors
Frequently asked questions
How much have tungsten prices risen?
Tungsten prices have risen 622% since the start of 2025, according to Visual Capitalist data. That outpaces tantalum at 196%, cobalt at 134%, lithium at 108% and copper at 44% over the same period, making tungsten the standout performer among widely tracked critical metals.
What does the January 1, 2027 rule actually require?
From January 1, 2027, U.S. defense contractors will not be permitted to use tungsten that has passed through China at any point in the supply chain. That covers not just Chinese-mined material but any tungsten processed, converted or handled in China before reaching a U.S. defense program, forcing contractors to find fully non-Chinese sourcing routes.
Why can't defense contractors just substitute another metal?
Tungsten's combination of extreme density and a very high melting point is why it appears in armor-piercing rounds, missiles, tank components and fighter jet parts. The source article states there is no easy substitute. Programs designed around tungsten's physical properties generally cannot swap in another material without redesigning the component itself.
Which companies were named as potential beneficiaries?
The article named Blue Moon Metals (TSXV: MOON; NASDAQ: BMM), Almonty Industries (NASDAQ: ALM; TSX: AII), American Tungsten (TSXV: TUNG; OTCQX: TUNGF), Fox Tungsten (TSXV: FOXT) and Guardian Metal Resources (NYSE: GMTL; OTCQB: GMTLF). Most are development or exploration-stage companies rather than current producers, which is central to both the opportunity and the risk.
How did the tungsten-linked stocks close on August 20, 2026?
As of the last trade at 20:00 GMT, Almonty's Nasdaq listing closed at 17.69, up 9.33%, and its Toronto line at 25.56, up 2.77%. American Tungsten's OTCQX quote rose 5.04% to 1.25. Guardian Metal Resources fell 2.18% on NYSE to 12.11, and Blue Moon Metals dropped 4.43% to 4.96.
Sources
Photo: Pixabay · Pexels Licence — source
